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Bad news for believers that the past is any guide to the future

By Sam Instone - May 31, 2018

Hargreaves Lansdown made billions by sending a 'best buy list' through people's doors.

My father loves it.

It's easy.

Look at the top-performing funds and pick your winners.

Open the money pages of a paper or look at any of the financial press and chances are you’ll see articles about the best funds to buy.


Here’s why you shouldn’t be.

The funds featured in the media are usually ones that have performed well in the past.

But that doesn’t mean they’ll do so in future.

How do we know this?

Research conducted by S&P Dow Jones revealed how many of these top-quartile managers were top quartile the year after.

And the year after.

And the year after.

What they found is bad news for the believers in the hope that the past is a guide to the future.

In fact, it’s worse.

Watch our video and discover in under 3 minutes why persistent outperformance by active funds is extremely rare.


Maybe outperformance is just too hard to maintain.

Or it just comes down to luck.

Either way, don’t be swayed by past performance.

It doesn’t predict the future.  

If you listen to the media or use a best buy list, you might be buying into a fund at just the wrong time.

My advice is to opt for education over speculation.

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