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Could this chart from the 1800s give investors today a way to navigate unpredictable markets?
I'm not a fan of predictions, but let's take a look...
Back in the 19th century, an American pig farmer from Ohio called Samuel Benner may have discovered the secret patterns behind asset prices.
After seeing his own assets wiped out in the panic of 1873, he created a chart forecasting the rise and fall in the average price of hogs, corn and pig-iron, identifying an 11-year cycle in the former, as well as a 27-year cycle in the latter.
In 1875, he unveiled his 'magic formula' in Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices and since then, it's been spookily accurate at predicting the ups and downs of global stock markets, including the Wall Street Crash, the Second World War, and the dot-com bubble.
Periods when to make money chart explained
The cycle identifies moves based on three time sequences:
- Prosperity in a 16-18-20-year pattern (meaning you should expect 16 years between the first two prosperous periods, 18 between the next two and 20 between the following two, before going back to 16);
- Commodity price lows in an 8-9-10-year pattern; and
- Recessions in a 5-6-7-year pattern.
For example, following its cycles, you'd have sold stocks in the 'B zone' of 2007, just before the financial crash in the 'A zone'.
Looking at the 'C zone', 2023 sat right at the chart's bottom, a year of "low prices" when Benner said to buy and hold. Markets did rally hard from the October 2022 low, which is the kind of hit that keeps the chart circulating.
Three years on, the chart has moved into its 'B zone'. It marks 2026 as good times and high prices, the year Benner said to sell. From there it points to hard times through to a low around 2032, and the next panic year in 2035.
So the chart currently says sell. It said the same in 1999 and 2007 and was close both times. It also called panics for 1911 and 1965 that never arrived, and its 2019 panic turned up a year late, in the spring of 2020.
That's the difficulty with a chart like this. It's right often enough to stay interesting and wrong often enough to be no use for a decision, and you can't tell in advance which kind of year you're standing in.
Rationally speaking, there are a few reasons why the chart has been accurate so far.
It's true, markets are cyclical, just as agricultural goods are in tune with nature's cycles (solar cycles impact crop yields, affecting agricultural supply and causing ups and downs in commodity prices).
Human behaviour is all so influenced by cycles of fear and greed and seeing prices go up and down fairly regularly won't be a surprise to many.
Using predictions (whether from a hog farmer or top Wall Street analyst) as a basis for your financial plan and future prosperity is a risky business.
Remember, not all of Benner’s prophecies have come true.
We also tend to praise the charts that worked (luckily or otherwise) and forget the others - known as survivorship bias.
You're best taking Andrew Hallam's advice, and looking at what really drives the stock market:
"We can’t predict future economics. And even if we could, we can’t predict how people will respond to those economics. So, here’s my advice. Don’t seek opinions on Facebook. Don’t seek opinions on Reddit. Don’t seek opinions on CNBC. Turn off the noise. Invest as soon as you have money. And invest as regularly as you can."
Stock market prediction chart
A stock market prediction chart is a tool some traders or investors use to understand where the market might be heading next. They look at charts to study price movements, trends, and patterns that have formed over time.
These charts can turn complex market data into something visual and easy to follow, with the aim of helping investors make smarter and more confident decisions.
I made a viral video on this topic, which you can view here:
What a stock market prediction chart shows
At its core, a stock market prediction chart shows how a stock or index has moved in the past and how it’s behaving now. By studying this information, traders believe they can get a reasonable idea of what might happen next.
Most prediction charts aim to highlight:
- Price movements over different time periods
- Upward and downward trends
- Areas where prices tend to stop or reverse
- Momentum and market strength
Some investors and traders believe these insights can help them time their entries and exits more effectively.
Common features you’ll see on prediction charts
A typical stock market prediction chart includes a mix of visual and technical elements, such as:
- Candlestick patterns that show daily or hourly price action
- Trend lines that reveal the overall market direction
- Support and resistance zones where prices often react
- Indicators like moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) to confirm trends
Of course, no one can predict the future. But for some, these features provide clues about market behaviour.
Why traders rely on stock market prediction charts
Many traders depend on stock market prediction charts because they believe they bring clarity to fast-moving markets. They perceive benefits, like:
- Helping spot trends early
- Reducing emotional trading decisions
- Improving risk management
- Supporting more consistent trading strategies
However, decades of data proves time IN the market is a far better strategy than TIMING the market.
How reliable are stock market prediction charts?
Using predictions - whether from a 19th-century pig farmer or a modern analyst - as the cornerstone of your financial life strategy is risky.
Predictions are educated guesses.
They can’t account for geopolitical shocks, technological disruptions, sudden policies, or black swan events. They certainly can’t tailor advice to your personal circumstances.
The Benner Cycle can inform your awareness of broader market cycles.
But it shouldn’t dictate decisions.
The smarter approach is to build a truly robust financial life strategy that doesn’t depend on perfect timing or accurately guessing the future.
So, markets move in cycles - that’s certain. But betting your future on any chart is speculation, not strategy.
Focus on what you can control: proper asset-allocation, great diversification, disciplined rebalancing, systematic investing and a financial life plan that’s resilient to whatever markets do next.
The Benner Cycle is historically fascinating and fun to look over.
It reminds us of patterns and extremes.
But despite the overwhelming and entirely human urge to always ‘react’ - future predictions should never form the basis for making better financial decisions or building real financial resilience.
Frequently asked questions
