I was watching Peaky Blinders the other night.
The latest episode takes place during the stock market crash of 1929.
The protagonist, Thomas Shelby, is upset about not withdrawing his money.
Worried he may lose out by staying invested.
Of course we know the opposite to be true…
(Don’t worry this blog doesn’t contain spoilers).
There’s a lot of uncertainty in the world.
Almost daily, investors are reaching out for guidance.
“Should I be worried about the latest currency fluctuations?”
“I have a property in Hong Kong, should I consider selling?”
“Is now a good time to buy gold as an inflation hedge?”
No one likes doubt and uncertainty.
These emotions incite us to take action.
To do something.
To change something.
To control something.
But the thing about investing is…
It’s almost certainly about uncertainty.
We don’t know what will happen in the markets an hour, day, month or year from now.
I recently mentioned a few life-changing investment books.
One of them is Rescue Your Money by Ric Edelman.
It’s a great read for anyone wanting to know how to invest in uncertain times.
“You must maintain a long-term focus for one simple reason: It’s the only way you can be certain you’ll capture the profits that investments offer – and avoid taking the full brunt of occasional downturns.”
When there’s market volatility, do you continue to invest systematically and consistently?
Or are you prone to reacting?
Fidelity did a study in 2013.
It focussed on investors who stayed with the same investment from 2008 through 2012.
Over this time, their investments quadrupled.
The average investment value rose from $47,100 to $199,800.
Their success was down to dollar cost averaging.
While others were selling in panic in 2008 and 2009…
These investors were buying.
They inevitably bought more shares with each dollar.
When those shares rose, so did their investments.
Another reason to stay patient and disciplined is that the stock market’s gain only occurs over very short periods.
During years of market crashes, the market will often recover all or most of its losses during a brief period.
So, if you react to the market’s volatility by constantly buying and selling…
You could lose out on the year’s gains or sustain bigger losses.
To illustrate this, let’s look at the S&P 500.
In 2007, the year’s entire gains occurred in just 1 week.
In 2014, 93% of gains occurred within 11 weeks.
In 2011, 8% of the year’s loss was recovered in only 24 days.
Between 2011 and 2015, there were 1,258 trading days.
If you stayed invested during this period, you would have earned 10% per year.
But if you missed the best 15 days over these five years – your annual average return would have been zero.
In other words…
The entire profit of five years came in 15 days.
It’s common for the stock market to jump in short bursts and long periods of stagnation to follow.
Can you predict when these short bursts will happen?
Neither can I.
Neither can your financial adviser.
The two most important things an investor can do to maximise their wealth is:
- Build a globally diversified portfolio
- Do nothing
In 2007, the behaviour of elite goal-keepers was examined.
286 penalty kicks were analysed.
It was discovered that although goalies almost always jump left or right…
The optimal strategy to achieve better results is actually to stay in the goal’s centre.
In other words, do nothing at all.
Something that applies to investors too.
Do you understand the benefits of staying disciplined and patient?
There’ll always be uncertainty.
Markets, economies and politics are always changing.
There’s nothing you can do about it.
But one thing is undeniable…
When markets collapse and the media’s headlines encourage you to sell, remember that the only way to make those losses concrete…
Is to cash out.
Staying invested and riding out the storm is not only the rational thing to do…
But the right thing to do.
I hope this provided the clarity and confidence you need to control the way you view and react to what’s happening in the markets.
If not, give us a call.